Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Measure H trailing ... but it's not over yet

The Measure H parcel tax is trailing, but it may not be over for the ballot measure yet. With all the precincts in, the tax is trailing by 115 votes our of nearly 14,000, if my math is right (no guarantee at this hour). The ever-helpful school board Trustee Mike McMahon reports on his site that county elections officials would still have to count another 1,700 to 1,800 provisional ballots and absentee ballots that were carried into polling places on Election Day for the measure to pass (ed.). The measure fared much better at the polls than the mailbox. It needs a 2/3 "yes" vote to pass. It would cost homeowners $120 a year and commercial property owners up to $9,500 a year for the next four years if passed. It would raise an estimated $4 million for Alameda's schools, which are facing about the same amount in proposed cuts to state funding for next year. We'll have more on this later today.

In the meantime, it looks like Loni Hancock got the Democratic nod for the chance to replace State Sen. Don Perata, beating out Wilma Chan; Hancock will face Republican Claudia Bermudez and Marsha Feinland of the Peace and Freedom Party in the race for the seat. Dennis Hayashi will ride the bench at Superior Court Office No. 9, and Conchita Tucker will represent Alameda and East and West Oakland on the County Board of Education. About 24 percent of Alameda County's voters cast ballots in Tuesday's election (though that number has changed a few times, so stay tuned).

You can get the full results here. Statewide stuff's here.

1 Comment:

Tony Daysog said...

Between the time when 53% of precincts were counted and when 100% of precincts were counted, the TOTAL vote went as follows:

TOT@53% TOT@100%
YE 7114 -- 9010
NE 3875 -- 4676
10989 -- 13686

The, the **increment** between 53% and 100% is as follows:

YE 1896 (70.3%) (9010-7114)
NO 801 (29.7%) (4676-3875)
2697

In order to get to 66.67% of the FINAL total tally, in the last batch of votes, proponents actually needed a 74.6% split (or, 2012 v. 685, not 1896 v. 801). With this split, the final tally would have been 9126 (66.67%) to 4560 (33.33%).

Thus, Measure H (as of right now . . . since more votes could still come in, i.e. provisional ballots) is 116 votes short in the last batch, i.e. 2012 (# votes needed in the last batch of votes) versus 1896 (actual # votes in the last batch of votes).

Another way to look at is this way: MH's total YES is 9010 (65.83%) to 4676 (34.17%) for a total vote of 13686. Assuming the total vote remains the same at 13686, to hit 66.67%, MH needed 9126 votes, or 116 more than what they actually got.